Page 41 - Shelter, October 2024

POLICY REVIEW

is a natural shift as the growth performance affecting investments in production
economy becomes poised the demand for these inputs activities that in turn spurts
for growth, there are some and thereby affecting their economic growth. The
real issues that are daunting supply. The shortage of demographic dividend can
the economy, especially the skillsets and skilled personnel benefit national economies
availability of factor inputs is being felt acutely not only only once in their life. China’s
to production – materials and by modern service sectors like demographic dividend may
resources, equipment and the Information Technology already have been over,
machinery, skilled labour and (IT) or Finance and Banking whereas India’s demographic
supervisors. (F&B) but also by traditional dividend is expected to
sectors like Construction and extend up to 2041, when it is
The growth in economic likely to peak (BT 2023).
activity is a leading to a surge Housing.
in the demand for resources, 1.1 Demographic Dividend Table 1 shows the projected
skills and production working age population of
facilities. While the rise in Demographic structure India and its share in total
economic output is fuelled by changes of India can population. It shows that
domestic and international potentially lead to achieving the working age population
investments, it is not matched a higher economic growth is expected to rise from 735
by the availability of requisite in the form of demographic million in 2011 at 61% of total
skilled personnel, which dividend. Demographic population to 988 million
gives rise to skill shortages dividend refers to the at 65% of total population
in Indian economy. The advantage of having a greater in 2036. The data trends,
shortage of skilled personnel share of working-age (15- therefore, suggest that there
is real as the country did not 59 years) population to total is potential for reaping
gear up its systems to make population that leads to demographic dividend in
them available for industrial/ greater amount of workforce. the future, if the country’s
business firms, which cannot It comes from the potential of resources are well channelled
perform efficiently without such younger and productive to accommodate the working
these inputs. This might working population to attain population into production
result in a ‘vicious cycle’– high household/ personal processes. However, in order
the shortage of factor inputs income, which translate into to reap the full potential
creating pressure on economic higher amount of savings benefits of demographic
growth and poor economic that can be channelled into dividend, the availability of

Table 1: Trends and Projections of Working Age Population in India

Year Working Age Population (million) Share of Working Age Population to Total
Population (%)
2011 735.4 60.7
2016 810.7 62.8
2021 875.4 64.2
2026 923.9 64.8
2031 962.1 65.1
2036 988.5 64.9

October, 2024, Volume 25. No.1 - SHELTER 39